Ron Paul Revolt (Ross Perot Evolved)

Published February 1st, 2008

I’ve mentioned this before, but it bears some further thought, analysis and discussion. The Ron Paul “Revolution” phenomenon is one of the most fascinating and unique trends in American political history. I’m not exaggerating - his campaign dynamic is the first of it’s kind. But it might also be the last, for multiple reasons and outcomes. In fact, Ron Paul has the potential to destroy the status quo of American politics - and not in the way many of his followers might expect or wish.

What do I mean about all this? Well, you have to look at what the Paul campaign has done. Whereas Howard Dean started the strategy of tapping the net, Paul has done so in a HUGE way. In fact, Paul was the leading GOP fundraiser last quarter. He’s raised more money than any other candidate. But this is also a huge problem for Paul and his supporters. Paul supporters have been predicting a Paul victory and revolution since this all started, but it has yet to happen. And on the eve of the Feb 5 Tsunami Tuesday, they’re still talking about it. This has the potential to go two ways. February 5th will very likely be a sobering reality check for Paul supporters. Right now, there is a Cult of Ron Paul, and they believe the end of the world is coming. Paul is the messiah of American Politics, and the New Age will begin on Feb 5. And like most millennium cults - they’re going to be facing a stark reality on Feb. 6 when the world keeps going on like it always has. What happens then? And why am I certain of their disappointment?

The Paul Cult has a decent number of followers, but it isn’t growing. It’s capped. And he keeps raising money from the same people over and over. Just like a crook televangelist who keeps getting money from those who want to be save, so goes the Paul campaign. His supporters donate over and over again. All this money and it’s not translating into votes. He’s pulling votes at just about the same rate as he polls beforehand (if he’s included in the polls). His numbers aren’t going up, even when his rabid supporters donate and spend on their own. The only way to really change hearts and minds is to get out there…and that’s problem #2 for Paul.

Where is all this money going??? People have been waiting for him to spend money for some time. When he first started, it was understandable he wasn’t spending much. But, now that he’s flush…he’s still not spending much. Some Paul supporters naively think this is a good thing - that somehow it displays fiscal responsibility:

I have been a republican for 20 years. I vote in every election. I will be voting for Ron Paul. He has consistently voted by his guiding principles his entire career. His campaign spending even reflects his ideals of small and efficient government. Every other candidate has huge staffs and blow thru their money, Ron Paul is frugal and effective and his staff is as bare bones as possible in order to use his money wisely. This is the approach he would take as President.

The problem is, you don’t run a campaign like you operate in office.

They are finally getting organized. Each state has a headquarters now. When they ask, they get it.
He’s running his campaign the way he wants to run the country. Delegating authority to the state groups. They’ve been slow to get organized. Wait til Super Tuesday. It’s not over. (Jan 8-08)

Well here we are, near Super Tuesday…and we’re seeing things like this:

ATTN: RP HQ has not given ANY money to Massachusetts. We have only limited personal money for mailings, phone calls or advertisements. (Jan 30-08)

Once again then, where’s the money going? Have you out there seen or heard much about Mr. Paul? Well in some places you actually will see a lot of Paul ads….like East Texas. That’s right, Paul is spending a lot of his money in his home district. Not on election ads, but re-election ads. Yep, he’s spending some of that Paul war chest, amassed by his rabid followers, on keeping his House seat. Pragmatic perhaps, but not likely what his supporters intended. So either he’s spending a ton on ads no one is seeing, on his Congressional race…or he’s saving it. Which brings me into the next phase of this post…

Ron Paul for President 2008. He knows he can’t win the GOP nomination - that’s abundantly clear at this point. So why spend money on a losing race? All he has to do is spend enough to keep the Paul nation giving him money and then sock it away for a 3rd Party bid. Ross Perot spent a lot of money to run for president. And it worked pretty well, he got somewhere around 20% of the vote. And of course, that wasn’t spent in a primary. Ron Paul will have millions of dollars marked for campaigning - and when he loses the GOP race, his followers are going to press for him to spend that money on running for president, as it was intended. And here’s where Paul can destroy American political status quo in a number of ways.

Paul has been called the first “long-tail” candidate, and maybe it’s true. But that means that there’s a lot of passionate people out there who would be extremely disenchanted and disheartened if Paul quit the race. Maybe distraught. Maybe enough to be really angry. And that could spur them to either change politics or drop out completely.  The Paul precedent would either be that a grass-roots candidate is completely impossible in this age, so why try….or, a grass-roots candidate should not be completely impossible, and the system has to change. They can do this by either really ramping up a 3rd party challenge, or if Paul gets lucky and Super Tuesday doesn’t solidify the GOP and there’s a broken convention - by having a huge delegate bloc.

Already Paul has changed the way politics are done. Don’t make the mistake of thinking that it’s gone unnoticed that he’s making millions. Next election cycle, you’ll see more Paul-type candidates. Now that it’s clear the best place to get money is from rabid followers, candidates would be foolish not to try and incite some serious fanaticism. In fact I wouldn’t be surprised to see some manufactured False Pauls - people that exist to whip up a base and some cash, then drop out of the race and use it to campaign for who The Party really wants. Campaign managers are taking note, I guarantee it - Paul has inspired millions to give him millions and work for free, out of their own pocket. He hasn’t had to spend on campaign posters, buttons, materials, flyers - all his followers do it for him. Money in his pocket. And someday, maybe money in The Party’s pocket.

So there it is. Paul could destroy American Politics as we know it. He could break the system with a strong 3rd Party run (the Republicans would freak if he siphoned off enough to pull a Nader and sink the nominee).  He could really spit in the face of Party Politics by making the GOP Convention - if brokered - an agonizing affair. His followers, disappointed at his failure, could be turned off to politics forever. Or they could be inspired to really start challenging the establishment. And his monetary success (follow the $) will almost assuredly guarantee we will see more Paul-like candidates in the future - possibly ones that are less genuine than they appear…

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