Bittersweet Me
Published October 2nd, 2007So comes to a close the end of the 2007 baseball regular season. And what a way to go too - if you want to see an example of an amazing game, see last night’s Padres-Rockies play-in game. Wow. It was one of the most exciting games I’ve ever seen. So lets take a look at my predictions, hand out some awards and go out on a limb about the playoffs…
American League
AL West: Angels - nailed it. A flawed team, but clearly the best in the west from day 1. The Mariners were playing over their heads and their collapse was foretold. The Angels have some strong pitching in Lackey and Escobar. They never got the big bat they’ve been needing for years, but it again didn’t matter. Vlad hits everything. The team plays “small-ball” in a way, but they do it by gambling on the basepaths, always stretching hits. The bunch hits together to rally in runs, and it worked this year. Scioscia always seems to get someone to step it up and play over their ability to fill in gaps.
AL Central: Indians - big miss! I picked the Twins, or the Tigers. Nope. The Indians woke up and took the division. And fairly quietly too. They’ve done it on the backs of their pitching - CC Sabathia is a genuine Cy candidate and Fausto Carmona has been absolutely awesome. Sizemore and V-Mart anchor their offense…what happened to Hafner? That’s the big question. Can Borowski keep defying the odds? The Yankees bats are very dangerous.
AL East: Red Sox - Close. I picked the Yanks to win and the Sox to pick up the WC, but they switched on me. The Sox have some good pitching in Beckett, Schilling and Dice-K, and just a flurry of hitting. They faltered near the end of the season, really letting the Yankees come close. But now they’ve got rest and home field advantage, and they play the Angels well.
AL Wild Card: Yankees - Close. The Yankees had a HORRIBLE start to the year and many, including me had written them off for dead. But they finally got some quality pitching performances, the bats woke up and they went on a 2nd half tear to pick up the wild card. Oh, and they have that A-Rod guy, who’s pretty good.
National League
NL West: Diamondbacks - nailed it. This team scrapped, defied statistical “rules” and won the NL West. They did it on the strength of Brandon Webb and their absolutely stellar bullpen. A bunch of youngsters out there, clawing to the top of the NL West dogfight.
NL Central: Cubs - YAY! I’m so glad about this. The Baby Brew Crew put up a strong fight, but just couldn’t hold off the Cubs who woke up after a mediocre start. The Cubs turned out to have decent pitching and decent hitting, a well rounded (if not outstanding) club. I’m living, sleeping, showering with my Cubs hat on for a while. This team doesn’t have the charisma of the 2003 club, but damn it all, they’re the Cubs.
NL East: Phillies - Wow. OK The Phils were my Wild Card pick, and they were in the race until an absolutely historic collapse by the Mets put them in the race for the NL East. They won the division on the last day of the season. Give them credit for hanging in there, but they should send a thank you to the boys at Shea - their meltdown was absolutely unforeseen and sad to watch. It was a slow-motion train wreck. The Phils have Hamels and…others….on the mound. But their bats are lively with Utley, Rollins and Howard. They hit the longball and can put up runs on the board in bunches.
NL Wild Card: Rockies - what?!? I don’t think there’s a single sane person out there who had the Rockies going to the playoffs in 2007. But here they are. A Cinderella team, winning a do-or-die game against the Padres for the Wild Card slot. And it was a 13 inning slugfest in the thin air of Coors. Now we get playoff games in Coors - that will be fun! This team is a mystery to me - and many - since they had to win 14 of their last 15 games to get in. I don’t know much about their pitching, but it looks decent - which is pretty good by mile-high standards. They have a potent offense anchored by Holliday, Helton, Hawpe and Tulowitzki…maybe Troy should put an H in front of his name. But there isn’t much room left on his jersey anyway.
Awards
AL MVP: Alex Rodriguez. It’s not even close. I won’t even go into justifying this - he had a monster season by any and all measures. He’s the best player in the game. His numbers this year were ridiculous.
AL Cy Young: CC Sabathia. The man broke out this year to the top of the heap. He led AL pitchers in VORP (65.2), PRC (131), his ERA was only 0.06 under his FIP, threw 241 innings, had a higher than average .316 BABIP and edged out the competition in Win Shares (24). Well done CC, you get the prize.
AL Rookie of the Year: Dustin Pedroia. Many left him for dead, but he turned it on this year and put up some big numbers. Led AL Rookies in VORP (35.9) and Win Shares (19), was 2nd in RC (80), and put up a nice .276 EqA. His teammate Daisuke Matsuzaka will probably win this award, but I don’t consider pros from Japan rookies. Sorry, the Japanese league talent is roughly on par with the MLB (they did win the WBC, you know) and the guys that come over are veterans.
NL MVP: David Wright. Crowded field here. There is no clear-cut winner to me. Hanley Ramirez leads in VORP (89.5). Chipper Jones leads in EqA (.340). Miguel Cabrera topped the RC list (138). David Wright had the most Win Shares (34). And that doesn’t even mention the other contenders with strong cases: Jimmy Rollins, Prince Fielder, Matt Holliday, Albert Pujols. Yeesh. I’m not a big fan of ignoring players from bad teams - but I don’t mind using playoff team membership as a tie-breaker. But this is a strong field here. So what to do? I guess I have to make a table and figure out who had the best overall season. Which I did, and Wright comes out on top.
NL Cy Young: Jake Peavy. It’s too bad last night put a blemish on his record, because Peavy is a damn good pitcher and had a top-notch year. He led in VORP (77.0), PRC (146) and Win Shares (23). The only negative point is that his ERA was boosted by Petco and came in 0.26 points under his FIP. Brandon Webb - who may get the Cy thanks to Peavy’s last outing - was right on his tail in every category and had the same FIP caveat (0.18). So Peavy gets the award.
NL Rookie of the Year: Troy Tulowitzki. Another crowded field! This turned into a 3-man race between Ryan Braun, Hunter Pence and Troy Tulowitzki. Troy probably locked up the award with is awesome play last night to help get the Rockies into the post-season. For me it was a little harder…Braun mashed and led in VORP (57.2), EqA (.319) and RC (96). Tulo led in Win Shares (25). Pence was right there in each category. It’s worth noting that Pence and Braun had about 200 fewer plate appearances than Tulowitzki, and in my mind that cuts both ways. Braun put up awesome numbers in fewer ABs than Tulo, but rookies should be given some credit for playing the entire year. Many rookies hit a wall and can’t hold up over the course of a season. Tulowitzki did. After running the numbers through a table, Tulo just barely edges out Braun - and I mean barely. Tulo gets the nod thanks to his superior defense and whole-year contributions. But it’s close - Braun is a deserving candidate as well. Pence is the real hard-luck case here - if he was in AL, he would have easily beaten out Pedroia.
Updated Predictions:
AL - Indians over Yankees, Red Sox over Angels. The Yankees are going to get in trouble that A-Rod won’t be able to bail them out of - but A-Rod is going to have a fantastic playoffs. The Angels would have preferred to play the Yankees, but the Sox are their bugaboo. In the CS, Red Sox over Indians. Home Field will help the Sox here and they’re going to make at least one good Indians pitcher look bad.
NL - Cubs over Diamondbacks, Phillies over Rockies. The Cubs are just a better team than the DBacks, and I think a solid Cubs team beats a solid DBacks team in a series. But it’s probably going 5 games. The Phils and the Rockies will be in a slugfest, but the Phils are going to win the war. In the CS, we’d then have two cursed teams. Phillies over Cubs, though it pains me deeply to say it. They can’t outscore the Phillies.
WS - Red Sox over Phillies. AL teams are better, and last year was some sort of horrible nightmare fluke. The Sox will carve up and out-mash the Phils, once again bringing disappointment to the city of brotherly love.
But dear god, I hope I’m wrong and the Cubs catch the magic and win it all. I’m crying this postseason, either way. I hope it’s tears of joy!
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