What do we have to do to please you?
Published July 2nd, 2007One of the things that separates the major sports is how they draft new talent, and how much of a direct impact those choices have. Baseball, for example, has many many rounds but the players drafted rarely make a significant impact until 2, 3 or 4 years down the road. If ever. A non-trivial number never make an impact at all. Basketball is basically the opposite. It’s only 2 rounds, but the top players drafted very commonly start the next year and will make a noticeable impact. At most, the best players make an impact within 1-2 years. Football is in the middle, with a long draft but the players drafted very often make immediate or timely impacts.
The basketball draft, due to it’s immediate effect on teams and short overall length, gets a ton of hype and analysis - even by those with short attention spans. I’m all for analyzing and talking about who was drafted and how they’ll fit in the team. Those are useful and interesting discussions. But please, please, PLEASE - so called “experts” - can we stop giving out Draft Grades for teams? Especially if they make no goddamn sense?
For a simple example of why this pisses me off, I’ll link here to Marty Burns of Sports Illustrated. As far as draft grade articles go, it’s about middle of the road. Not terrible, not good. I’ve seen worse. But it’s still pretty stupid. Marty only gives out an A grade to 3 teams. Actually, he couldn’t bear to give out an A - he gave out 3 A-minuses. You mean no one at all in the draft did exactly what they needed to do? NONE? My god, all the GMs should lose their job then. Marty also was terrified of badmouthing anyone, so no team was given a D or and F. So no GM did exceptionally well, but no GMs did exceptionally bad either? The entire league was mediocre in their drafting performance? Note to teams: If you can figure out how to get an A on Marty’s scale, you might have the best GM the game has ever seen.
Seriously, what would it take to get an A? Portland had the first pick. Marty raves about their performance: “For the second straight year, they were bold and aggressive. Oden was the safe and logical pick at No. 1, Fernandez could prove a Ginobili-type steal down the road, and McRoberts was a great value at No. 37. They also got Channing Frye while ridding themselves of Zach Randolph in that trade with the Knicks.” Sounds like high praise. Though not high enough - Portland got an A-. Marty is pretty critical of the Pacers performance: “They began the night without any picks, but picked up Barac, a 7-foot-1 Croatian who is still raw, for a pick two years from now. Larry Bird must have really wanted to get in the draft.” What did the Pacers get? A grade of C. Oooh, way to stick it to ‘em, Marty.
It’s folly to even try and grade a draft the day after the event anyway - players are all potential, not a one has set foot in an NBA game. We won’t know who did well or not until a few years down the road. So dammit, don’t give grades. I’ve seen articles where not a single team got an A, and not a single team an F or a D. Well, I could write that article. Just guess that every team did mediocre (”good pick, might pan out, might not, C+). That way you’re never wrong. Is that really it? These guys are afraid to give a team a D and then the players they drafted blow up into stars? It’s absurd. If you’re going to give an opinion, at least make it meaningful. Or if you’re going to give out grades - say what the team would have had to have done to get an A. If you can’t see any way the team could have done better, then you have no business not giving them an A. Teams shouldn’t be penalized for drafting low (”In the 32nd slot the team drafted the best player available, but there’s no way he’s good enough to make an impact. C-”) - if they did the best they could for that draft position, how do they not deserve an A?
That’s the problem with so-called experts. They criticize without, apparently, even considering the alternatives. Let’s say I scored 36 points, all by myself, in fnoogleball. What grade do you give my performance? What if I told you that the average players scores 94 points? What if I told you I did it with a broken leg? What if I told you fnoogleball is played sitting down? In order for you to answer those questions, you need to know something about the alternatives. So if I drafted X,Y, and Z - how well did I do? If you can’t even come up with one way that would have been better, you’d better give me an A. Or, you’re not an expert and shouldn’t be writing for Sports Illustrated.
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